It is not an exact science to figure out when the new iPhone arrives. Apple will announce a release date. You can however, from history, make an educated guess.
It is most likely that new iPhone models are released in September or Oct every year. There may be some exceptions, but we will see.
This can be based on the release dates of prior iPhones.
As you can see the four first iPhones were released in June and July. The iPhone 4S changed this. This may be because the new iPad models are often released in March or April. Apple does not want to release its flagship products too close together, though in recent years iPad release cycles seem less predictable.
It was not clear at that time if the fall release was a one-off thing. However, the September launch of the iPhone 5 as well as almost all subsequent models arriving in September makes it very likely that all new iPhone models would now be released during the fall.
Find out what Apple has planned for the future iPhone models. Our collection of latest iPhone rumors is available.
The iPhone SE: An exception to the Fall Release Calendar
The fall release date for new iPhones was the same for five years. But, that pattern was thrown into doubt by the iPhone SE’s March 31st 2016 release.
With the release of the second generation iPhone SE in April 2020 and third-generation iPhone SE March 2022, the idea that there might be a few new iPhones in spring was supported. Apple may view the spring as an opportunity to release cheaper iPhones. But, Apple must remember that SE versions have been released for many years.
Temporary exception? The iPhone XR & iPhone XX
An exception to the rule is the iPhone X, which was released in November. But it is likely that the November release date will be canceled. Rumors claim that Apple had difficulty manufacturing some of its new components, and had to move the release date of the X from November to November. Future versions of the X are likely to debut in September, as we expect these parts to become more easy-to-make. Even though the iPhone X wasn’t released until November, it was announced in September along with the iPhone 8 series.
Throwing a slight wrench into the new-iPhone-every-September rule is also the iPhone XR, with its October release date. Nonetheless, this model was announced in September along with the iPhone XS Max (and iPhone XS Max) so that people were at least aware of it and could buy it if desired, starting in September.
The iPhone 12 series release could be a shift in the September model release window. The four iPhone 12 models will be released in October and November 2020. The delays could have been as much due to manufacturing delays than Apple’s preferred scheduling. Therefore, we will need to wait until 2021 before we can determine if this move is permanent.
When should you upgrade?
You should also consider whether to wait for a new iPhone model’s release before upgrading.
If you want to upgrade anytime during the first half of the year, we recommend waiting for September when new models will be available and older models are discounted.
It is safe to say that the new iPhone models will arrive every September. If you are planning on upgrading, it’s a smart idea to wait until at most mid-September. Why buy a phone that isn’t up to date in a matter of months? Or even weeks? What if you could wait to get the latest and greatest thing?
Your current phone’s durability will drive your decision. It may be able to last for a while, but it might not if it’s malfunctioning or broken. However, you could wait until fall to make that decision. You can then enjoy the new iPhone.
What Happens to Older Models
Although everyone wants to have the best, it is important to pay attention to what happens when Apple releases older models. The majority of cases, the highest-end model last year stays around at a lower cost.
Apple’s iPhone 7 series introduced the iPhone 6 series. It discontinued the 6S series but offered the SE and 6S, while the SE was still available. The 6S price was cut by $100. It’s a good idea if you’re looking for a deal but also want to upgrade. Wait until Apple releases a new model. Then, grab the best model from last year at a reduced price.